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Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the Golden Globe Nominations!

Get the jump on Monday's nominations with our predictions for who will be nominated and why.

by and | December 4, 2019 | Comments

Awards season kicks into high gear this Monday with the announcement of the 2020 Golden Globe nominations. Which of the year’s movies and TV shows will earn the love of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – and, for those in the film categories, move one step closer to Oscar glory? We think we might know… Yes, we’re taking on the (arguably foolhardy) task of predicting the Golden Globe nominations this year, across all categories. Looking at factors such as Tomatometer scores, awards buzz, where the campaign dollars are going, historical precedent, as well as the politics of awards like this, we’ve given our five top picks for noms in categories ranging from Best Motion Picture – Drama to Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Film. (Yes, they combine them all in that last category – and yes, it’s a tough one.)

Check out our picks for the nominations below, and let us know who you think will be nominated in the comments.


Best Motion Picture – Drama

Sony Pictures

(Photo by Sony Pictures)

Who will be nominated?

1917 (2020) 89%
Joker (2019) 68%
Little Women (2019) 95%
Marriage Story (2019) 94%
The Irishman (2019) 95%

And why? The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s foreign-language eligibility rules are why you don’t see Oscar frontrunner Parasite on this list. Early reviews for 1917 and Little Women have positioned both those films, still yet to hit theaters, as major awards contenders, so we’re expecting lots of love there. Watch out for Ford v Ferrari though – we don’t have it listed, but if any film could sneak in with a photo finish…


Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fox Searchlight Pictures

(Photo by Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Who will be nominated?

Dolemite Is My Name (2019) 97%
Hustlers (2019) 87%
Jojo Rabbit (2019) 80%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (2019) 85%
Rocketman (2019) 89%

And why? This is a tough category this year and while we’re putting all our chips on the five films above, we wouldn’t be surprised if Cats could sneak in as a last-minute entry, along with the super-popular Knives Out. Still, we’re thinking the HFPA will remember – and richly reward – the Elton John biopic, Rocketman, which was something of a sensation when it opened back in May.


Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama

Who will be nominated?

Alfre Woodard – Clemency (2019) 92%
Charlize Theron – Bombshell (2019) 69%
Renee Zellweger – Judy (2019) 82%
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (2019) 95%
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (2019) 94%

And why? Renee Zellweger opted for the highly competitive Best Actress – Drama category, signaling her team and backers’ full confidence that she can win at the Globes and eventually the Oscars. It’s the same play that worked well for Rami Malek last year – so it’s not a bad idea. Alfre Woodard is our pick to snag the fifth slot next to Theron, Ronan, and Johansson – all looking like solid bets. But keep an eye out for Cynthia Erivo or Lupita Nyong’o to pull a surprise nomination if the Clemency actress is left out.


Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama

Marriage Story

(Photo by © Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

Adam Driver – Marriage Story (2019) 94%
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria) (2019) 97%
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (2019) 68%
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (2019) 89%
Robert De Niro – The Irishman (2019) 95%

And why? Virtually every awards pundit agrees that Marriage Story and Joker stars Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are in – just don’t ask us to pick which one we think will win. One thing we do know: the competition will be fierce. With Uncut Gems categorized as a Drama late in the game, National Board of Review Best Actor winner Adam Sandler seems unlikely to score a nomination, though we’d still take long odds for a Sandman upset.


Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy 

The Farewell

(Photo by Casi Moss, courtesy of A24)

Who will be nominated?

Awkwafina – The Farewell (2019) 98%
Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart (2019) 96%
Constance Wu – Hustlers (2019) 87%
Emma Thompson  – Late Night (2019) 80%
Ana de Armas – Knives Out (2019) 97%

And why? Renee Zellweger competing in Drama is welcomed news for Ana de Armas, who can now safely take a spot on the less competitive Comedy side of the Actress categories for her disarming and vomit-filled turn in Knives Out. Performances from early-in-the-year favorites The Farewell, Booksmart, and Late Night are easy calls given this is a less competitive category than Drama; even Beanie Feldstein’s Booksmart co-star Kaitlyn Dever could score a nomination.


Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy 

Who will be nominated?

Roman Griffith Davis – Jojo Rabbit (2019) 80%
Daniel Craig – Knives Out (2019) 97%
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name (2019) 97%
Leonardo DiCaprio  – Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (2019) 85%
Taron Egerton – Rocketman (2019) 89%

And why? Sandler’s departure to the Drama side gives way for Jojo Rabbit lead Roman Griffin Davis to compete with the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy – not too bad for a pre-teen. On the musical side, HPFA might opt to shake things up and nominate Himesh Patel for Yesterday (everyone loves The Beatles right?). Even if they don’t, we’re confident Taron Egerton makes it in, giving the Rocketman star some much-needed buzz heading into the last half of the season.


Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture

Kristin Callahan/Everett Collection

(Photo by Kristin Callahan/Everett Collection)

Who will be nominated?

Laura Dern – Marriage Story (2019) 94%
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (2019) 80%
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers (2019) 87%
Annette Bening – The Report (2019) 82%
Margot Robbie – Bombshell (2019) 69%

And why? It breaks our heart to say it, but we’re predicting Annette Bening’s star power will likely outmatch Zhao Shuzhen‘s flawless work as Nai Nai in The Farewell. That star-power logic is also why we’re confident wild horses – or four-inch clear heels – couldn’t keep the celebrity-obsessed HFPA from nominating Jennifer Lopez.


Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

(Photo by © Columbia Pictures)

Who will be nominated?

Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (2019) 90%
Al Pacino  – The Irishman (2019) 95%
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2019) 95%
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (2019) 89%
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (2019) 85%

And why? This category more than any other is all about the names and legacy. With 12 wins and 40 Golden Globe nominations between them, it’s going to be nearly impossible for anyone else to slide in. The only spoiler nomination we can possibly foresee is Joe Pesci for his triumphant return to the screen in Martin Scorsese’s gangster epic The Irishman.


Best Director – Motion Picture

Dominique Charriau/WireImage

(Photo by Dominique Charriau/WireImage)

Who will be nominated?

Bong Joon-ho – Parasite (Gisaengchung) (2019) 98%
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman (2019) 95%
Pedro Almodóvar – Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria) (2019) 97%
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (2019) 85%
Sam Mendes – 1917 (2020) 89%

And why? Best of luck to anyone not named Quentin, Martin, Bong, or Sam. With such auteur names in contention, even Marriage Story director Noah Baumbach will likely be left out in favor of Golden Globe and international cinema favorite Pedro Almodóvar. Natalie Portman publicly called out the HFPA for its tendency to nominate male directors, so we might see the Globes course correct and nominate Greta Gerwig for Little Women to make amends for her Lady Bird snub – but it’s not likely.


Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Netflix

(Photo by © Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

The Irishman (2019) 95%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (2019) 85%
Jojo Rabbit (2019) 80%
Parasite (Gisaengchung) (2019) 98%
Marriage Story (2019) 94%

And why? In another brutal category, we marked Parasite as a firm entry on our list, and Quentin Tarantino’s love letter to Old Hollywood, Once Upon A Time in…Hollywood, and Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit are even safer bets. The Hollywood Foreign Press does love star power though, so Knives Out might be able to parlay that into a surprise nomination here.


Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

A Portrait of a Lady on Fire

(Photo by © NEON)

Who will be nominated?

The Farewell (2019) 98%
Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria) (2019) 97%
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Portrait de la jeune fille en feu) (2020) 98%
Parasite (Gisaengchung) (2019) 98%
Les Misérables (2020) 88%

And why? The Globes’ International film rules allow The Farewell to compete here alongside frontrunner Parasite, despite being deemed ineligible for the same category by the Academy – and it’s very much favored to make the cut. Under those same laxer guidelines, Neon’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire is also our pick to nom, but don’t dismiss the smaller indie darlings Monos, For Sama, or The Chambermaid, all of which are wildly popular among the Foreign Press.


Best Motion Picture – Animated

Who will be nominated?

Abominable (2019) 81%
Frozen II (2019) 77%
Toy Story 4 (2019) 97%
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (2019) 90%
Klaus (2019) 94%

And why? Netflix’s Klaus is the surprise entry here, but its Annie nominations and buzz from the Hollywood Foreign Press screenings make us confident it will be included on Monday. It’s no surprise, however, we included How to Train Your Dragon 3 and Toy Story 4, as all the previous entries in both series have landed nominations. The Foreign Press does tend to favor foreign-language animations, so Netflix’s other offering, I Lost My Body, does have a puncher’s chance of sliding in over one of our other choices.


Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Niko Tavernise/© 2019 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.

(Photo by Niko Tavernise/© 2019 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.)

Who will be nominated?

Thomas Newman – 1917 (2020) 89%
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker (2019) 68%
Alexandre Desplat – Little Women (2019) 95%
Randy Newman – Marriage Story (2019) 94%
Nicholas Britell – The King (2019) 71%

And why? Eyeing their seventh and fourth Golden Globe nominations respectively, cousins Randy and Thomas Newman were our first choices here, though the Best Score race is still very much up in the air; contenders like Alan Silvestri for Avengers: Endgame and Michael Abels for US are off our list but very much in the conversation.


Best Television Series – Drama

The Crown Season 3

(Photo by Sophie Mutevelian / Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

The Crown 91%
Succession 92%
Game of Thrones 89%
Killing Eve 89%
Euphoria 89%

And why? Two-time nominee, one-time winner The Crown is sure to lead the category in a new season with Olivia Colman’s Queen Elizabeth v. 2.0. But will voters give the award to Game of Thrones, nominated five times for the best drama award, for its final season? Notably, its lowest-scoring season on the Tomatometer with a Rotten 58%. First, it must snag that nomination. Meanwhile, HBO also scored this year with slow-burn Succession and addictive Euphoria, which deserve nominations. Killing Eve dipped slightly on the Tomatometer in its second season, but is still Certified Fresh at 93%. Also mentioned as contenders: The Morning Show, Pose, and Big Little Lies.


Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Fleabag

(Photo by Amazon Prime Video)

Who will be nominated?

Fleabag 100%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel 89%
Barry 99%
Russian Doll 97%
Schitt's Creek 93%

And why? Fleabag cleaned up at the Emmys, and we expect no less for Phoebe Waller-Bridge and her dark comedy here. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is seeing its lowest-scoring season so far – still in the 80s and still Fresh, however. Barry was also a shoo-in, but Russian Doll and Schitt’s Creek put up a fight to be included against On Becoming a God in Central Florida and The Good Place.


Best Miniseries or Television Film  

Who will be nominated?

Chernobyl: Miniseries (2019) 96%
When They See Us: Season 1 (2019) 96%
Fosse/Verdon: Miniseries (2019) 81%
Unbelievable: Season 1 (2019) 98%
El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (2019) 91%

And why? Chernobyl and When They See Us battled it out in several categories at the Emmys, and we expect to see the same at the Globes. Both are locks for nominations. Unbelievable and El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie make this a category for Netflix to lose, while Fosse/Verdon slides in to round out our predictions. (Watch for The Act or Years and Years possibly to prove us wrong.)


Best Actor – Television Drama

Kit Harington in the Game of Thrones series finale (Helen Sloan/HBO)

(Photo by Helen Sloan/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

Brian Cox – Succession 92%
Tobias Menzies – The Crown: Season 3 (2019) 90%
Jeremy Strong – Succession 92%
Billy Porter – Pose 96%
Kit Harington – Game of Thrones 89%

And why? Billy Porter took the Emmy equivalent in this category, while Succession’s Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong have both turned in explosive performances in the HBO drama. Tobias Menzies’ nuanced performance, taking over the role of Prince Philip from Matt Smith, greatly contributed to The Crown’s enduring excellence. The HFPA hasn’t yet honored Harington with a nomination, but this last season of Game of Thrones would be the year to do it; if not, Steve Carell expertly plays the cad in The Morning Show and could take the nomination instead.


Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy 

Barry

(Photo by HBO)

Who will be nominated?

Bill Hader – Barry 99%
Michael Douglas – The Kominsky Method 90%
Paul Rudd – Living With Yourself 81%
Don Cheadle – Black Monday 68%
Ricky Gervais – After Life 74%

And why? Recent Emmy winner Bill Hader leads the pack. We think the HFPA will also give a nod to their host Ricky Gervais, last year’s winner in the category Michael Douglas, lovable everyman/Avenger Paul Rudd, and fellow Avenger Don Cheadle for his Showtime comedy. If not them, look to veteran actors Ted Danson (The Good Place) or Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek) to claim spots in this category.


Best Actor – Miniseries or Television Film 

When They See Us

(Photo by Atsushi Nishijima/Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

Jharrel Jerome –When They See Us: Season 1 (2019) 96%
Jared Harris – Chernobyl: Miniseries (2019) 96%
Sam Rockwell – Fosse/Verdon: Miniseries (2019) 81%
Aaron Paul – El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (2019) 91%
Mahershala Ali – True Detective : Season 3 (2019) 85%

And why? Another category in which When They See Us and Chernobyl clashed at the Emmys, here we see newcomer Jharrel Jerome, who won the Emmy, versus veteran actor Jared Harris, whose Chernobyl performance may have been a career best – or maybe it was The Terror? Sam Rockwell, Aaron Paul, and Jerome’s Moonlight costar Mahershala Ali (who won an Oscar for that role), are likely to fill out the category’s nominations.


Best Actress – Television Drama 

Watchmen keyart Regina King (HBO)

(Photo by HBO)

Who will be nominated?

Olivia Colman – The Crown: Season 3 (2019) 90%
Jodie Comer – Killing Eve 89%
Zendaya – Euphoria 89%
Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show 61%
Regina King – Watchmen 96%

And why? Get ready to rumble: 2019 Oscar winners Olivia Colman (lead actress in The Favourite) and Regina King (supporting actress in If Beale Street Could Talk) brought their A-games to series for Netflix and HBO, respectively. They’ll be the ones to beat even if Jodie Comer just won the Primetime Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series for her role as unhinged assassin Villanelle. The competition is on fire in this category, however, with both Zendaya and Jennifer Aniston turning in remarkable performances in their respective roles. Just on their heels: Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies), Sandra Oh (Killing Eve), and Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies).


Best Actress – Television Musical or Comedy

Courtesy of Netflix

(Photo by © Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

Phoebe Waller-Bridge Fleabag 100%
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel 89%
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep 93%
Kirsten Dunst – On Becoming a God in Central Florida 85%
Natasha Lyonne – Russian Doll 97%

And why? The Emmy domination by Phoebe Waller-Bridge and her Amazon series Fleabag clinch her nomination here. Two-time winner in this category Rachel Brosnahan surely didn’t see this freight train coming when she was busy worrying about what Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ return for the final season of Veep would mean for her chances. Good luck to Kirsten Dunst and Natasha Lyonne, who will have to contend with heavy-hitters – that is, if Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek) and Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) don’t sneak in ahead of them.


Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film

FOSSE VERDON "Who's Got the Pain" Episode 2 (Airs Tuesday, April 16, 10:00 pm/ep) -- Pictured: Michelle Williams as Gwen Verdon. CR: Eric Liebowitz/FX

(Photo by Eric Liebowitz/FX)

Who will be nominated?

Michelle Williams – Fosse/Verdon: Miniseries (2019) 81%
Helen Mirren – Catherine the Great: Miniseries (2019) 68%
Merritt Wever – Unbelievable: Season 1 (2019) 98%
Joey King – The Act 90%
Niecy Nash – When They See Us: Season 1 (2019) 96%

And why? Michelle Williams took the Emmy in this category, but the HFPA loves Dame Helen Mirren: nominated 15 times, she’s won three Golden Globes. It’s possible we flipped a coin between Merritt Wever, Kaitlyn Dever, and Toni Collette for their their performances in Unbelievable. Who can choose among such excellence? But the power of Joey King and Niecy Nash’s performances should not be underestimated.


Best Supporting Actor – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film 

Chernobyl Jared Harris (HBO)

(Photo by HBO )

Who will be nominated?

Andrew Scott – Fleabag 100%
Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel 89%
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones 89%
Kieran Culkin – Succession 92%
Stellan Skarsgård – Chernobyl: Miniseries (2019) 96%

And why? We don’t know how to feel about the objectification of Andrew Scott as “Hot Priest” in Fleabag; thanks to his layered performance, the season 2 character was both endearing and frustrating. Scott faces five-time Golden Globe nominee Tony Shalhoub, who won for his lead role in Monk in 2003. Shalhoub also took the Emmy in the supporting actor in a comedy series category earlier this year. We predict Shalhoub will face four-time supporting actor in a drama series Emmy winner Peter Dinklage, who also won this category as Game of Thrones’ Tyrion Lannister in 2012. Both Kieran Culkin and Stellan Skarsgård more than deserve recognition, but are dark horses to win in January.


Best Supporting Actress – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep (Credit: Jennifer Clasen/HBO)

(Photo by Jennifer Clasen/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown: Season 3 (2019) 90%
Meryl Streep – Big Little Lies: Season 2 (2019) 85%
Emily Watson – Chernobyl: Miniseries (2019) 96%
Patricia Arquette – The Act: Season 1 (2019) 90%
Emma Thompson – Years and Years 89%

And why? Helena Bonham Carter may not be the perfect Princess Margaret, but her performance as the troubled royal certainly stands on its own. It’s drama, darlings. Another category with a wealth of talent, supporting actress almost requires a dart throw to choose nominees. We landed on the knock-out performances listed above, but Laura Dern (Big Little Lies), Olivia Colman (Fleabag), Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show), and Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) are all contenders here.

Update: An earlier version of this article did not show The Irishman as a prediction for Best Motion Picture – Drama, due to an editing error. This has now been updated. 


The 2020 Golden Globe nominations are announced Monday, December 9, at 8am ET / 5am PT. Check back at Rotten Tomatoes to see who gets a nod! 

Are you as obsessed with awards as we are? Check out our Awards Leaderboard for 2019/2020.


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