Box Office Guru Preview: Carrey-Carell Ticket To Win Landslide Victory

Never Back Down, Doomsday also vie for box office.

by | March 13, 2008 | Comments

Three new releases roll into multiplexes across North America – one the size of an elephant, the others like specks of dust. Fox aims to deliver the largest opening weekend of the year so far with its animated family event film Horton Hears A Who which could very well triple the gross of its nearest competitor. Summit counters with its action title Never Back Down while Universal also targets young men with its horror flick Doomsday. Overall, the marketplace looks to bounce back and even stands a chance of beating year-ago figures for the first time in a month.

Almighty pals Jim Carrey and Steve Carell play nice this time in the first-ever animated feature version of a Dr. Seuss tale in Horton Hears A Who which goes into
saturation release on Friday. The G-rated pic tells of a playful elephant that discovers an entire city living on a tiny speck on a flower, but can’t convince others of its
existence. Fox has a mighty big hit on its hands for a number of reasons. The property is from an author that all generations are familiar with so parents and kids
alike can relate. The marketplace has very few viable options for children at the moment. Plus starpower from the two leads makes this a comedy juggernaut that
will allow the film to go beyond its core family audience and tap into business from teens and young adults too.

With one of the sharpest marketing departments around, Fox has the means to mine riches from this surefire spring blockbuster. Who else could propel lame
kidpics like Night at the Museum and Alvin and the Chipmunks to $200M+ megahit status over consecutive holiday seasons? The studio has used March as a
launching pad for its animated offerings from Blue Sky Studios allowing the films to steer clear of summer and holiday hits from Pixar and DreamWorks. In 2002,
Ice Age surprised everyone with its $46.3M debut. Three years later its Robots opened to $36M while the 2006 sequel Ice Age: The Meltdown bowed to a
mammoth $68M. Forgotten are the days of Titan A.E. Horton Hears A Who is destined to join its March brothers on the hit list.

The key to grosses skyrocketing lies in the interest of teens. Will they look at this as a Carrey-Carell dream team laugh-a-thon and line up? Chances are many will,
especially with no other major comedies doing substantial business. Appeal is broad with males and females of all ages opening their wallets. Sure it’s not as funny
as you’d hope given the two big C’s involved, but moviegoers will eat it up nonetheless. Plus with Good Friday and Easter helping the second weekend, long-term
prospects seem rosy too. Debuting ultrawide in over 3,900 theaters, Horton Hears A Who could collect about $50M over the Friday-to-Sunday period.


Seth Rogen and Jim Carrey (voices, that is) in Horton Hears a Who

Rookie distrib Summit Entertainment kicks into high gear with its fighting extravaganza Never Back Down which hopes to connect with the Mountain Dew crowd
looking for extreme action. The PG-13 flick stars relative unknowns Sean Faris and Amber Heard with Djimon Hounsou cast as the only star name. Action comes
from a high schooler’s discovery of the world of Mixed Martial Arts with the film playing as a hybrid of Fight Club and The Karate Kid. With little starpower and
a generic premise, Never will struggle to post strong box office numbers on opening weekend. Plus Doomsday will be stealing away some of the target audience
of young males. The two films really should not be opening head to head since neither is strong enough to stand on its own two feet in the first place. Summit gets
credit for at least trying with a marketing push that goes beyond what a pic with such little star wattage deserves. Never Back Down punches its way into 2,729
locations on Friday and could bag around $6M over three days.


Sean Faris in Never Back Down

Another killer virus film attacks the multiplexes, this time the British thriller Doomsday from Universal. The R-rated fright flick marks one of the studio’s few films to
not be screened for the press ahead of time and instead will rely on marketing to find its audience. Young men and genre aficionados should make up the primary
crowd here and they won’t be easy to reach. Besides the debut of Never Back Down, 10,000 BC is also in the marketplace playing to a good chunk of this
audience. Overall, the promotional push has not been too strong and awareness levels are not high, especially outside of the target demo. Infecting 1,935 theaters,
Doomsday looks to debut with about $5M this weekend before making a swift jump to that shiny disc.


The riotous revelry of Doomsday

After a sturdy debut, the prehistoric adventure 10,000 BC should suffer a sizable drop thanks to negative word-of-mouth. Direct competition from new releases
won’t be too much of a factor, but bad buzz will scare away prospective second weekend patrons. Look for a 55% decline which would give Warner Bros. about
$16M for the frame and $61M in ten days. The caveman pic will continue to dominate the overseas box office thanks to debuts this weekend in lucrative markets
like France, Italy, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

Disney’s College Road Trip will take a direct hit from Horton this weekend as the family crowd will have a much bigger film to rally behind. A 40% drop would
put the Martin LawrenceRaven-Symone comedy at $8M for a ten-day cume of $25M.

Audiences have been receptive to the presidential assassination storyline of Vantage Point which could drop another 40% to $4.5M this weekend for a cume of
$58M for Sony. Lionsgate’s The Bank Job probably saw the bulk of Jason Statham fans rush out on opening weekend so a 45% fall would give the heist thriller
$3M and $11M in ten days.

LAST YEAR: New releases were no match for the top two films in North America which remained on top of the charts. The mammoth Spartan smash 300 tumbled 54% in its second weekend but still posted a hefty $32.9M sophomore tally. The Disney comedy Wild Hogs showed good legs dipping 31% and ranked second with $19.1M in its third lap. Faring best among the freshmen, Sandra Bullock‘s supernatural thriller Premonition opened in third with $17.6M for Sony on its way to a solid $47.9M. Rounding out the top five were fellow newcomers Dead Silence with a moderate $7.8M and Chris Rock‘s I Think I Love My Wife with a disappointing $5.7M. Final grosses reached $16.8M for the Universal pic and $12.6M for the Fox Searchlight laugher.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

Pacific Islander romantic comedy serial killer MSNBC Crackle Best Actress documentaries DirecTV Mary poppins name the review saw reboot disaster crime thriller dexter scene in color high school ViacomCBS boxoffice nbcuniversal dragons action-comedy thriller mission: impossible BET lord of the rings movie Fantasy Spring TV women Instagram Live festival new star wars movies justice league biography jurassic park halloween tv finale E! talk show Amazon Prime Video Britbox El Rey Marvel Studios TCA Winter 2020 Indigenous CW Seed Esquire Toys Nat Geo Apple TV Plus streamig CBS All Access Country free movies classics vampires cops sequel nature Kids & Family Winners popular Native political drama witnail The Arrangement streaming movies 71st Emmy Awards laika 99% Vudu Countdown ABC Polls and Games 79th Golden Globes Awards Awards Animation History Image Comics First Look 4/20 Holiday MTV The Walking Dead Mindy Kaling Ghostbusters superhero renewed TV shows werewolf cancelled TV series AMC Plus Turner Classic Movies Cosplay comedies best The Witch BBC One 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards Brie Larson mob Neflix Valentine's Day Academy Awards Podcast Disney Channel game show Best and Worst Endgame know your critic The Walt Disney Company foreign The CW Broadway Hulu TCA Awards hist screenings spinoff Calendar robots FXX black Video Games Black History Month leaderboard golden globe awards composers Infographic Fall TV Song of Ice and Fire NYCC stoner RT History diversity cartoon CNN Creative Arts Emmys Holidays Binge Guide Hallmark Christmas movies Paramount Network south america historical drama obituary Dark Horse Comics casting war TV renewals Sundance Now Travel Channel streaming young adult Trivia technology black comedy Pixar independent ABC Family space SundanceTV hollywood fast and furious sequels new york Christmas Rom-Com TCA MCU National Geographic MGM richard e. Grant Shudder Star Trek Paramount Plus period drama transformers live event indiana jones Film Festival rt archives cars TV die hard Oscars NBA SXSW 2022 See It Skip It San Diego Comic-Con TNT prank Star Wars halloween obi wan tv talk all-time AMC Comedy Tokyo Olympics Elton John breaking bad PaleyFest hispanic heritage month japan crossover Universal Pictures VICE Thanksgiving australia BET Awards The Purge 90s discovery Mudbound Fox News TruTV award winner cults 2016 Super Bowl worst movies 2017 live action Best Actor superman vs. HFPA Discovery Channel Prime Video PBS X-Men spain harry potter 72 Emmy Awards blockbuster Reality Netflix hispanic unscripted movies WGN critics Comics on TV travel slasher asian-american spy thriller remakes supernatural video on demand zombies 45 adenture HBO 24 frames reviews TBS james bond 93rd Oscars binge Lucasfilm franchise dark telelvision LGBTQ critic resources versus Music Arrowverse dceu Logo 007 politics strong female leads Baby Yoda italian kong video anime South by Southwest Film Festival chucky dc posters Schedule Nickelodeon Spike adaptation Nominations Rock Summer Syfy trophy TV Land christmas movies summer TV aapi comic book movies book spider-verse Emmys screen actors guild true crime Heroines ABC Signature E3 Freeform FX on Hulu revenge Trophy Talk crime Netflix Christmas movies American Society of Cinematographers adventure Amazon Prime YouTube Premium monster movies natural history Disney+ Disney Plus rotten Classic Film TIFF comic books art house ratings Shondaland GLAAD criterion Sony Pictures docudrama OneApp Crunchyroll First Reviews Character Guide SDCC LGBT joker FOX football cooking Biopics jamie lee curtis zero dark thirty GIFs The Academy Western films DGA science fiction Comic Book Grammys Lifetime scene in color film series Ellie Kemper Marvel Apple President Tarantino Warner Bros. heist movie RT21 Pirates target godzilla Chilling Adventures of Sabrina OWN Amazon Ovation Universal aliens Sundance TV theme song Anna Paquin Sony Alien concert Interview target scene in color documentary Winter TV genre broadcast pirates of the caribbean sports comiccon international biopic Chernobyl indie game of thrones Marathons TCA 2017 japanese cancelled CBS basketball new zealand royal family Legendary DC Universe Martial Arts medical drama WarnerMedia New York Comic Con a nightmare on elm street kids Pet Sematary IFC Films docuseries teaser IMDb TV Fox Searchlight PlayStation Certified Fresh spanish Emmy Nominations Epix Amazon Studios HBO Go animated GoT 2021 Pop TV USA Network DC Comics kaiju archives Red Carpet Fargo suspense Opinion YouTube Red HBO Max Peacock comics social media directors cinemax golden globes 20th Century Fox mockumentary wonder woman Mystery universal monsters Showtime APB Tomatazos YouTube mcc Exclusive Video marvel comics dramedy Premiere Dates cancelled television Avengers festivals ID spanish language spider-man Action Food Network fresh book adaptation Starz 73rd Emmy Awards Captain marvel blockbusters Set visit mutant news Photos hidden camera Teen series Hear Us Out legend TV movies blaxploitation BBC crime drama Pride Month nfl Paramount Paramount Pictures Cannes comic Lifetime Christmas movies Musical Pop rt labs Lionsgate Family ghosts romance Quiz toronto facebook anthology cancelled TV shows Masterpiece Election stand-up comedy Geeked Week Black Mirror Spectrum Originals Film USA batman singing competition 1990s toy story TCM scene in color series emmy awards Walt Disney Pictures Watching Series Bravo Box Office Turner Awards Tour deadpool Women's History Month Disney Mary Tyler Moore psychological thriller Television Critics Association Superheroe Oscar twilight SXSW VOD rotten movies we love DC streaming service Drama summer preview Focus Features parents television TLC Rocketman BAFTA scary movies CMT Television Academy Sneak Peek rt labs critics edition NBC gangster Disney streaming service dreamworks french worst Extras police drama zombie Disney Plus venice 2020 summer TV preview Comic-Con@Home 2021 scary A&E Star Wars Celebration marvel cinematic universe elevated horror child's play Musicals psycho green book debate Comedy Central latino BBC America TV One 2019 Year in Review miniseries Superheroes ESPN sopranos canceled TV shows quibi 94th Oscars slashers Trailer Wes Anderson scorecard Adult Swim satire comic book movie Stephen King YA Sci-Fi sitcom Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt razzies Sundance 2015 VH1 trailers Funimation Writers Guild of America ITV cats Marvel Television Apple TV+ Rocky Horror children's TV canceled based on movie what to watch boxing king kong olympics Tubi A24 Columbia Pictures 21st Century Fox Best Picture FX feel good Tags: Comedy Tumblr dogs IFC Hallmark interviews Cartoon Network sag awards doctor who Reality Competition rom-coms stop motion king arthur 2018 Acorn TV Best Director Mary Poppins Returns Hollywood Foreign Press Association